Fascicolo 26 | 2024

Gianluca Pastori, Quali fondi per quali armi? L’Alleanza atlantica fra impegni finanziari e dibattito sulle capacità

Abstract– Abstract – Since the end of World War II, defence expenditure and its allocation have been a constant source of concern in US-Europe relations. Even before the establishment of the Atlantic Alliance, both the Congress and the Joint Chiefs of Staff expressed doubts about the sustainability of Washington’s permanent and large-scale commitment to European security. In the following years, despite the constraints the Cold War imposed, the issue repeatedly surfaced. For instance, in the first half of the Fifties, President Eisenhower believed that evoking burden sharing would have positively shocked the European allies’ inertia in the military realm. Since the Nineties, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the redefinition of NATO’s tasks, the issue has taken on new relevance in the light of the US global repositioning, Europe’s growing ambitions for strategic autonomy, and the increasing divergence among their respective priorities. Against this backdrop, the 2014 Celtic Manor “pledge” – reconfirmed in 2023 at the NATO Vilnius summit – which sets 2% of GDP as the minimum ceiling that allies should allocate to their defence budgets, only partly succeeded in composing the rift between the two shores of the Atlantic. Moreover, the pledge has faced growing criticisms regarding both its quantitative aspect and its usefulness. Beyond the symbolic value and its possible stimulus effect, several authors have questioned the actual meaning of a “simple” quantitative target. On the one hand, it has been claimed that some allies’ commitment in terms of men, matériel and participation in NATO’s activities more than compensates for their limited financial contribution; on the other, it has been pointed out that the difficulties the Atlantic Alliance is currently facing are not due to scarce expenditure but to the inability to tackle the existing capability gaps; a problem that has little to do with both the Celtic Manor pledge and – to a certain extent – the burden sharing issue itself.

Keywords: Military Spending, Burden Sharing, Defence Investment Pledge

Francesco Randazzo, Il baluardo incrinato: Russia, NATO e la fragile stabilità europea nel contesto della sicurezza globale

Abstract– Born with a clearly anti-Soviet purpose, NATO was compelled to redefine its goals and strategies following the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In this new context, the North Atlantic organisation attempted to view Russia as a potential partner while still pursuing a policy of military interventionism and expansion into Eastern Europe – a strategy that Moscow consistently viewed with suspicion. After the attacks of 11 September 2001, the temporary cooperation between NATO and Russia in the fight against terrorism gradually gave way to renewed divisions, fuelled by American unilateralism and Russia’s revived ambitions as a great power. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict may mark either the beginning of a new international rivalry or the culmination of a relationship that has reached its limit and is now in need of transformation. How, where, and when this renewal will occur are questions to which we historians cannot provide answers, as foresight is not within our skill set. However, if NATO’s eastern expansion and militarisation were intended to strengthen European security, it is clear that this objective has not been achieved. Today, Europe is the stage of the largest military conflict since the end of the Second World War, and it stands closer to a generalised confrontation than at any time in the post-war era. Whether the war between Russia and Ukraine will foreshadow a new “shot heard in Sarajevo” as it was in the previous century, only time will tell. However, the election of Donald Trump to the White House offers glimmers of potential peace solutions, though still undefined at the time of this publication.

Keywords: NATO, Russo-Ukranian War, European Security

Marco Peronaci, La NATO e le priorità dell’Italia a 75 anni dalla firma del Patto Atlantico

Abstract – Since 1949, as a founding member of the Atlantic Alliance, Italy has always given a key contribution to NATO, which has proved to be crucial in the strategic choices that have defined the Alliance’s posture towards old and new challenges. In a geopolitical context that will have a long-term impact on global balances of power, the Alliance needs to deepen its European and Mediterranean dimension in order to fulfil its mandate and strengthen its capabilities in the three core tasks: deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, cooperative security. Scaling up industrial, military and political synergies with Partners is necessary to jointly guarantee the security of the Euro-Atlantic region and a rule-based international order. In this perspective, Italy’s priorities in NATO – supporting Ukraine, focusing attention on the Southern neighbourhood, and deepening cooperation with the European Union – are consistent with the systemic role that the Alliance is gaining in the international order.

Keywords: NATO-Italy Relations, Euro-Atlantic Security, Southern Flank

Paolo Wulzer, Chinese Dream: ordine internazionale e rapporti con gli Stati Uniti nella politica estera di Xi Jinping (2012-2024)

Abstract – This article aims to examine the genesis and evolution of the concept of the Chinese Dream, which has informed the foreign and security policy discourse of the People’s Republic of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping. This article will, in particular, seek to situate the concept of Chinese rejuvenation within the historical trajectory of the RPC’s foreign policy,highlighting both continuity and change in Xi Jinping’s international posture in comparison to previous stages of China’s post-Cold War foreign policy. After an examination of the hallmarks of the foreign policies of Jiang Zemin in the 1990s and Hu Jintao in the 2000s, this article seeks to explore the ways in which the notion of the Chinese Dream has shaped Xi Jinping’s foreign and security policy, particularly in terms of reforming global governance and relations with the United States. China’s growing contestation of the international liberal order, coupled with the current competitive nature of Sino-US relations, can thus be understood as the culmination of the Chinese leadership’s long-term strategic design to regain great power status in international politics.

Keywords: China, United States, Xi Jinping

Mireno Berrettini, La “minaccia fantasma”: la Repubblica Popolare Cinese nell’elaborazione politico-strategica della NATO

Abstract – The article aims to analyze the evolving role of China in NATO’s strategic considerations, tracing the shift from a peripheral issue to a central concern within the Alliance. It examines how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has transformed from a normative and economic question into a pressing security challenge, influencing NATO’s agenda through its growing global influence, hybrid threats, and alignment with Russia. By exploring key milestones — such as the NATO 2030 initiative and recent summits — the article highlights the strategic recalibration required to address China’s multifaceted challenges while maintaining transatlantic unity. Ultimately, it seeks to understand how NATO is adapting to China’s assertiveness in a multipolar, increasingly competitive world order.

Keywords: China,Transatlantic Relations, Security

Barbara Onnis, La Cina guarda alla NATO. Le relazioni tra Pechino e l’Alleanza dalla fine della Guerra Fredda

Abstract – This paper aims to analyze how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) views the North Atlantic Alliance, focusing on the evolution of relations between Beijing and Brussels in the post-Cold War period when both parties were seeking new legitimacy and roles on the global stage. The first part examines the initial phase of mutual indifference, reflected in the near-total absence of NATO in Chinese government communications and documents (addressed in the second part), despite a limited collaboration and some moments of tension. The third part dwells on the shift in relations and perceptions in the mid-2010s, coinciding with Donald Trump’s election in the U.S., which sparked increasing tensions between China and the West – further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic – thus influencing Beijing’s relations with both the European Union and NATO. The final section focuses on the results of a study by three Chinese researchers on the online platform Zhihu, exploring the Chinese middle class’s perception of NATO. This group, representing about 50% of the population and characterized by high urbanization, education, and income levels, is deeply influenced by nationalist sentiments stemming from China’s semi-colonial past.

Keywords: China, NATO, post-Cold War relations

Andrea Carati, La NATO e la Cina: dalla cooperative security alla nuova competizione globale

Abstract – Over the past three decades, the Atlantic alliance has undergone a profound transformation, during which both NATO’s strategic posture and the perception of security threats have evolved. In the immediate period following the end of the Cold War, the dominant strategic vision within the Euro-Atlantic community was inspired by the concept of “cooperative security.” However, over the last two decades, NATO has responded to emerging threats by returning to a more traditional and competitive political-strategic approach. Within this framework of transformation, China has gradually assumed an increasingly prominent role in the Alliance’s reflection and strategic documents. This essay outlines two prevailing approaches through which NATO has addressed the threats posed by China: a minimalist approach, more focused on preserving the Eurocentric nature of the Alliance, and a maximalist approach that identifies China as one of the priorities for the security of NATO countries. To date, neither approach has unquestionably prevailed over the other; instead, the Alliance’s policies and strategic planning have followed an intermediate path, privileging pragmatism over rigid ideological choices.

Keywords: NATO, Cooperative security, China

Silvio Berardi, L’Unione europea, la NATO e lo Strategic Compass

Abstract– Relations between the European Union and NATO are constantly evolving, also in the light of the crisis in Ukraine which has, inevitably, affected the priorities of the political agenda of the two international players. The Strategic Compass project, albeit with its current undefined contours, is intended to be the reinforcement of the European military dimension. The EU document, which set the strategic vision of the twenty-seven countries for the next decade, found approval during the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union, in March 2022. The European Union, through the Strategic Compass, therefore aims, in the medium to long term, at real strategic autonomy, both technological-industrial and in terms of intervention capacity, with a view to burden-sharing. The implementation of effective military cooperation in the European sphere, which will bring about a concrete political strengthening of the EU institutions, is, however, not intended to reduce but only to redefine, in a spirit of solidarity, the role of NATO in the Old Continent.

Keywords: NATO, European Union, Strategic Compass

Davide Borsani, Verso il «Mediterraneo globale»? La proiezione oltremare dell’Italia (1979-2024)

Abstract – This essay examines Italy’s strategic evolution from the end of the Cold War to the present, with a focus on its increasing military engagement beyond national borders. Since the 1980s, Italy has expanded its involvement in overseas missions, reflecting its enhanced capacity for military projection and closer cooperation within NATO and other coalitions. During this period, Italy adopted a more proactive approach to global security, moving beyond the defensive posture it had maintained throughout the Cold War. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Italy solidified its international posture, participating in key missions across the Wider Mediterranean region and even beyond, such as in Afghanistan. These operations highlighted, among other aspects, the growing significance of naval aviation and deployable capabilities, demonstrating Italy’s ability to adapt to a range of geopolitical challenges. More recently, Italy has further broadened its focus, turning attention to the Indo-Pacific region, signaling its apparent ambitions to establish itself as a key player in global security. Nonetheless, realizing these ambitions will require sustained political commitment, strong international alliances, and a cultural shift towards embracing a more assertive role.

Keywords: Italian Security Policy, Power Projection, Coalition Warfare

Simone Zuccarelli, Il ritorno del conservatorismo trumpiano e le prospettive per l’Italia nel quadrante transatlantico

Abstract – In 2020, when Donald Trump was not reelected, numerous commentators, experts, and policymakers saw an opportunity to revitalize more cooperative relations between the two sides of the Atlantic, after the previous four years had led to significant conflicts on at least two crucial issues: trade policies and burden sharing. However, the rushed withdrawal from Afghanistan by the Biden Administration, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack forced the West to find a new balance. In this challenging context, Italy has sought to position itself in line with its historical foreign policy, though it has had to contend with the economic and military limitations that have complicated its action in the international system for at least two decades. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has added another layer of uncertainty andhad opened new challenges that, if well managed, could provide opportunities to revitalize Italy’s foreign policy. At this difficult historical juncture, where the number of threats continues to grow, Italy must begin to develop a more proactive foreign policy, not only capable of keeping the country afloat but also of charting an Atlantic course that would grant it an international status commensurate with its stature.

Keywords: Trump, Italy, Conservatism

Giorgio Battisti, L’evoluzione della NATO e le sfide alla sicurezza euro-atlantica

Abstract – The North Atlantic Treaty, signed on April 4, 1949, by twelve nations, established NATO as a collective defense alliance to protect Western Europe from the Soviet threat during the early Cold War. Over 75 years, NATO has evolved into the world’s most successful and enduring security organization, expanding to 32 member states while adapting to new geopolitical realities. Initially focused on protecting external borders, NATO transformed after the Cold War into a global actor, addressing threats like terrorism, regional instability, and cyber warfare. It has intervened in major crises, including in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Libya, and continues to redefine its role through strategic documents like the 2022 Strategic Concept. Key challenges discussed in the text include NATO’s adaptation to hybrid threats, the shifting global balance of power, and the evolving nature of collective defense. The text also explores NATO’s strategic expansion, its interactions with global powers like Russia and China, and debates around European defense autonomy. Through these themes, the analysis highlights NATO’s adaptability and relevance in addressing the security challenges of the 21st century.

Keywords: Collective Defense, Strategic Adaptation, European Defense